人民黄河

黄河水沙条件已发生根本性变化，由“水少沙多”的特性变成了“水沙均少”的常态，客观上与现行规划思路、防洪调度方案制定时的前提条件不匹配。通过归纳分析，认为新时期黄河流域将迈向高质量发展，治理层面面临五方面亟待解决的问题：一是现行洪水设计成果偏离实际，导致防洪布局阵容过大；二是入库沙量骤减但三门峡水库运用方式却未变化，功能被弱化；三是黄河下游河道主槽持续冲刷，但地上“悬河”态势依然存在；四是下游河段卡口制约突出，在偏保守设计洪水条件下蓄滞洪区难以解放；五是黄河中上游地区修建了大量淤地坝，拦减入黄泥沙作用巨大，但存在易溃坝、对生态影响较大等问题。围绕以上关键问题，针对性提出行之有效措施建议：第一，修正现有洪水设计成果和进入下游的年均沙量条件，合理布局下游防洪减灾治理体系；第二，优化三门峡与小浪底水库协同调度方式，充分挖掘三门峡水库价值；第三，通过组织民间水力抽沙降河举措，在不需要国家较多投资的前提下，将下游“悬河”变成地下河；第四，实施下游艾山卡口扩宽措施，突破下游治理瓶颈，扭转下游防洪被动局面；第五，大力推广淤地坝修筑与除险加固新技术，改变传统淤地坝的渗流破坏机理，确保工程安全。

The flow and sediment regimes of the Yellow River have undergone a fundamental shift. The basin's long-standing characteristic of “low flow with high sediment load” has now given way to a persistent condition better described as “low flow with low sediment”—a reality that no longer aligns with the planning framework and flood-operation strategies established under previous assumptions. This paper argues that as the Yellow River Basin moves toward high-quality development in the coming period, its governance faces five pressing challenges: a) Current flood-design parameters deviate from actual conditions, resulting in an oversized flood-control layout. b) Despite a sharp decline in incoming sediment to the reservoir, the operation of Sanmenxia Reservoir remains unchanged, which unduly marginalizes its functional potential. c) While the main channel of the Lower Yellow River continues to incise, the “suspended river” above the surrounding ground remains an enduring threat. d) The bottleneck constraint of the river narrows in the lower reach is prominent, making it difficult to liberate the flood detention and storage zones under relatively conservative design flood conditions. e) The vast number of check dams built across the middle and upper reaches have played a substantial role in trapping sediment, yet many are prone to breaching and pose considerable ecological concerns. In response to these key issues, this study proposes a set of targeted, actionable measures: First, revise the existing flood-design criteria and the annual average sediment load entering the lower reaches, so that the downstream flood-mitigation system can be placed on a more rational footing. Second, optimize the coordinated operation of Sanmenxia and Xiaolangdi Reservoirs to more fully tap the value of Sanmenxia Reservoir. Third, promote community-based hydraulic sand-dredging for riverbed lowering—an approach that requires limited state investment and could potentially transform the suspended river into a below-grade channel. Fourth, physically widen the Aishan narrows to remove a critical bottleneck and reverse the passive defensive posture in the lower reaches. Fifth, scale up the application of new check-dam construction and reinforcement technologies that fundamentally alter the seepage-failure mode of conventional designs, thereby ensuring structural integrity and safety.