人民黄河

水资源短缺是制约黄河流域可持续发展的核心问题。为给黄河流域水资源安全战略制定提供参考，系统分析了黄河流域水资源的基本特征、开发利用与管理状况，并对未来供需态势进行了预测。结果表明:1)黄河流域水资源本底条件较差，主要表现为总量严重短缺、时空分布不均、年际年内变化剧烈、连续枯水时段长，且天然径流量显著衰减; 2)随着水资源管理制度的持续完善，1989—2023年黄河供水区用水总量基本稳定，但用水结构性变化显著，农业用水量占比大幅度降低; 3)黄河流域用水受限于资源条件与管理政策，用水效率虽然已处于国内较先进水平，但是仍存在较大供需缺口，导致干支流生态水量不足、河道淤积萎缩、地下水超采问题突出; 4)面向黄河流域生态保护与高质量发展、长治久安、粮食安全与能源安全等国家战略目标要求，未来流域需水仍将增长，亟须加快建设跨流域调水工程，通过外部水源保障黄河流域水资源安全。

Water scarcity constitutes a critical constraint on the sustainable development of the Yellow River Basin. To provide a reference for formulating water resources security strategies in the Yellow River Basin,this study systematically analyzed the fundamental characteristics,development and utilization,and administrative situation of water resources in the basin,and projected future supply-demand trends. The results indicate that: a) The Yellow River Basin suffers from poor baseline water resources conditions,primarily characterized by severe overall shortage,uneven spatiotemporal distribution,high inter-annual and intra-annual variability,prolonged periods of consecutive dry years,and a significant declining trend in natural runoff. b) With the continuous improvement of water resource management systems,the total water use within the Yellow River water supply zone remained generally stable from 1989 to 2023,yet notable structural changes occurred,evidenced by a substantial decrease in the proportion of agricultural water use. c) Water use in the basin is constrained by both resource availability and management policies. Although water use efficiency has reached a relatively advanced level domestically,a significant supply-demand gap persists,leading to prominent issues such as insufficient environmental flow in the mainstream and tributaries,river channel sedimentation and shrinkage,and severe groundwater over-exploitation. d) To support national strategic goals such as ecological conservation and highquality development within the Yellow River Basin,long-term stability and security,as well as food and energy security,water demand in the basin is projected to continue growing. It is thus imperative to accelerate the construction of inter-basin water transfer projects to secure water security for the basin through external water sources.