人民黄河

产业高质量发展是协同推进黄河流域生态保护和高质量发展的必然要求。为探索黄河流域水-碳资源保护与产业高质量发展的协同关系,给流域产业高质量发展和生态保护提供决策支撑,依托Tapio脱钩模型评价黄河流域产业高质量发展与水-碳资源利用的脱钩态势,并借助Kaya-LMDI模型从产业质量效应、经济规模效应、生活水平效应、城镇化效应和人口效应识别二者脱钩的驱动因素。结果表明:1)2013—2021年,黄河流域产业高质量发展指数呈现先上升后下降的变化趋势,空间上表现为东高西低、南高北低的格局;2)黄河流域产业高质量发展与水-碳足迹脱钩状态未能持续向好发展,仅在2014—2016年实现2次弱脱钩,此后扩张连接和扩张负脱钩状态交替出现;3)产业质量效应、生活水平效应和人口效应促进脱钩,经济规模效应和城镇化效应抑制脱钩,各省(区)脱钩态势及驱动因素作用效果存在差异。基于上述研究结论建议:加快探索水-碳协同利用新路径,着力推动水-碳资源保护和产业高质量发展协同进步;有效发挥产业质量效应、人口效应和生活水平效应的促进作用,合理扩大经济规模和推动城镇化进程。

High-quality industrial development is the key path to jointly promote ecological protection and high-quality development in the Yellow River Basin. To explore the synergistic relationship between water-carbon resource conservation and high-quality industrial development in the Yellow River Basin, and to provide decision-making support for sustainable industrial growth and ecological protection, this study employed the Tapio decoupling model to assess the decoupling trends between industrial high-quality development and water-carbon resource utilization. Additionally, using the Kaya-LMDI mode, it identified the driving factors behind this decoupling by analyzing the effects of industrial quality, economic scale, living standards, urbanization, and population. The results reveals that: a) From 2013 to 2021, the highquality industrial development index of the Yellow River Basin shows a trend of rising first and then declining, and spatially presents a pattern of “high in the east and low in the west, high in the south and low in the north”. b) The decoupling state of industrial high-quality development and water-carbon footprint in the Yellow River Basin fails to continue to develop well, weak decoupling is just achieved twice in 2014-2016, and then the decoupling trend of expanding connection and expanding negative decoupling alternately appears. c) Industrial quality effect, living standard effect and population effect promote decoupling, while economic scale effect and urbanization effect inhibit decoupling. There are differences in decoupling state and driving factors among provinces and regions in the Yellow River Basin. It is recommended that we should accelerate the exploration of new paths for synergistic water-carbon utilization and focus on promoting the coordinated advancement of water-carbon resource protection and high-quality industrial development. We should also give full play to the promoting role of the industrial quality effect, population effect and living standard effect, and rationally expand economic scale and promote the urbanization process.