人民黄河

县域作为我国经济发展的重要区域单元，碳排放量较大。为探索黄河流域县域新质生产力驱动碳减排的路径并为相关研究提供参考，基于2014—2023年黄河流域九省(区) 904个县域的面板数据，采用时空极差熵权法测度县域新质生产力水平，借助Kernel核密度估计、Dagum基尼系数、空间Markov链等分析黄河流域县域新质生产力时空演变情况，进而以碳排放强度为被解释变量、以新质生产力水平为核心解释变量构建计量模型，通过实证分析考察县域新质生产力对碳减排的驱动效应。研究结果表明:1)黄河流域县域新质生产力水平在时间上呈波动上升趋势但研究期末整体水平仍然较低，在空间上大致呈东高西低的梯度格局;2)黄河流域县域新质生产力提升具有较强的路径依赖性，关键因素是科学技术革命性突破，跨级跃迁发展的难度较大; 3)黄河流域县域新质生产力对碳减排具有持续稳定的驱动作用(但受行政区划间边界与壁垒等影响而具有负向空间溢出效应)，其驱动路径包括科学技术革命性突破、生产要素创新性配置、产业结构深度转型升级3条直接驱动路径和通过有效促进节能降耗、增汇固碳等间接驱动路径; 4)黄河流域县域新质生产力对碳减排的驱动作用具有空间和产业部门等异质性。建议:优化科技创新机制，促进县域新质生产力水平稳步提升;靶向施策，缩小区域间新质生产力差距;进一步充分发挥新质生产力的碳减排作用，助力县域经济社会发展低碳转型。

Counties serve as crucial regional units in China's economic development,contributing significantly to carbon emissions. To explore the pathways through which new quality productive forces at the county-level drive carbon emission reduction in the Yellow River Basin and to provide a reference for related research,this study utilized panel data from 904 counties across nine provinces( or autonomous regions) in the Yellow River Basin from 2014 to 2023. The level of new quality productive forces at the county-level is measured using the spatiotemporal range entropy weight method. Kernel density estimation,the Dagum Gini coefficient,and the spatial Markov chain were employed to analyze the spatiotemporal evolution patterns of new quality productive forces in the region. Subsequently,an econometric model was constructed,with carbon emission intensity as the dependent variable and the level of new quality productive forces as the core explanatory variable,to empirically examine the driving effect of county-level new quality productive forces on carbon emission reduction. The research findings indicate that: a) The level of new quality productive forces at the county-level in the Yellow River Basin exhibited an overall fluctuating upward trend over time,yet remained relatively low by the end of the study period. Spatially,it generally displayed a gradient pattern with higher levels in the east and lower levels in the west. b) The enhancement of new quality productive forces at the county-level in the Yellow River Basin exhibits strong path dependence,with revolutionary breakthroughs in science and technology being the key driver,while the difficulty of achieving leapfrog development is relatively high. c) New quality productive forces at the county-level in the Yellow River Basin exert a consistently stable driving effect on carbon emission reduction. However,due to administrative boundaries and institutional barriers,it exhibits a negative spatial spillover effect. The driving mechanisms include three direct pathways,including revolutionary breakthroughs in science and technology,innovative allocation of production factors,and deep transformation and upgrading of industrial structure,as well as indirect pathways operating through effectively promoting energy conservation,emission reduction,carbon sequestration and carbon sink enhancement. d) The driving effect of county-level new quality productive forces on carbon emission reduction in the Yellow River Basin exhibits heterogeneity across space and industrial sectors. Therefore,the following recommendations are proposed: Optimize the scientific and technological innovation mechanism to steadily enhance county-level new quality productive forces; Implement targeted policies to narrow the inter-regional disparities in new quality productive forces; Further leverage the carbon-reduction potential of new quality productive forces to support low-carbon transformation in county-level socio-economic development.