人民黄河

为揭示黄河流域生态韧性的时空演变情况及其主要影响因素，给黄河流域生态系统的可持续发展和生态环境治理提供理论依据，以2013—2023年为研究期，构建生态系统韧性评价指标体系，运用熵权-TOPSIS法测算黄河流域九省(区)生态韧性水平，采用全局莫兰指数分析生态韧性的空间自相关性，采用Dagum基尼系数揭示生态韧性的区域差异，采用随机森林模型识别生态韧性的主要影响因素。研究结果表明：1)研究期初黄河流域九省(区)生态韧性水平差异较大，尤其上下游地区省(区)间的差异较大，研究期多数省(区)生态韧性水平呈上升趋势(其中四川、甘肃、河南、山东生态韧性水平呈显著上升趋势，青海、宁夏、内蒙古、陕西、山西生态韧性水平上升趋势不明显或波动较大),研究期末虽然各省(区)生态韧性水平的差异有所减小，但是生态韧性水平仍普遍较低；2)黄河流域生态韧性水平具有一定的空间自相关性，但空间自相关性在研究期显著减弱；3)森林覆盖率、产业结构高级化水平、生态环境用水率、产业结构合理化水平、基础设施投资占财政支出比重是当前影响黄河流域生态韧性的主要因素，单位面积SO₂排放量、单位面积COD排放量、水土保持投入强度因曾经是主要影响因素而不可忽视。建议：加大对经济欠发达地区和生态脆弱地区的财政支持力度，大力推进经济绿色化、低碳化转型，强化水资源统一调配、提高水资源利用效率。

In order to reveal the spatio-temporal evolution of ecological resilience and its main influencing factors in the Yellow River Basin, and provide theoretical bases for the sustainable development of ecosystem and ecological environment governance in the Yellow River Basin, this paper took 2013-2023 as the research period, constructed the evaluation index system of ecosystem resilience, and used the entropy weight-TOPSIS method to measure the ecological resilience level of nine provinces(regions) in the Yellow River Basin. The Global Moran's index was used to analyze the spatial autocorrelation of ecological resilience, the Dagum Gini coefficient was used to reveal regional differences in ecological resilience, and the random forest model was used to identify the main influencing factors of ecological resilience. The results show that: a) At the beginning of the study period, the ecological resilience levels of the nine provinces(regions) in the Yellow River Basin varied significantly, with particularly large disparities between upstream and downstream provinces(regions). During the study period, most provinces(regions) showed an upward trend in ecological resilience levels. Among them, Sichuan, Gansu, Henan, and Shandong exhibited a significant upward trend, while Qinghai, Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi, and Shanxi showed no obvious upward trend or experienced considerable fluctuations. Although inter-provincial disparities in ecological resilience levels narrowed by the end of the study period, the overall resilience remained generally low. b) The level of ecological resilience in the Yellow River Basin had a certain spatial autocorrelation, but the spatial autocorrelation was significantly weakened in the study period. c) Forest coverage rate, the level of industrial structure advancement, the water consumption rate of the ecological environment, the rationalization level of the industrial structure, and the proportion of infrastructure investment in fiscal expenditure were the main factors affecting the ecological resilience of the Yellow River Basin at present. SO₂ emissions per unit area, COD emissions per unit area, and the intensity of soil and water conservation investment remained non-negligible due to their historical significance. This study recommends increasing financial support to economically underdeveloped areas and ecologically fragile areas, vigorously promoting the green and low-carbon transformation of the economy, strengthening the unified allocation of water resources, and improving the efficiency of water resources utilization.