人民黄河

为破解黄河流域资源型城市的资源诅咒与生态约束问题，并给推动流域可持续发展提供参考，构建了涵盖新质劳动者、新质劳动对象和新质劳动资料3个维度的评价指标体系，运用熵权-Topsis法评估2012—2023年黄河流域34个资源型城市的新质生产力发展水平，利用核密度估计和灰色预测GM(1,1)模型测度新质生产力发展的时空演变格局，采用障碍度模型分析新质生产力发展的影响因素。结果表明：1)黄河流域资源型城市中新质生产力发展指数处于快速增长型的城市数量最多，指数均值呈倒V形增长趋势；2)黄河流域资源型城市新质生产力发展趋向同步，2024—2028年新质生产力发展指数的预测均值呈现稳定的上升趋势；3)影响新质生产力发展的前5个障碍因子是宽带接入用户数增速、公路线路密度、财政科技支出占比、R&D人员数与就业人员数之比、废气排放强度。

In order to provide a reference for resolving the problems of resource curse and ecological constraints in resource-based cities in the Yellow River Basin and promoting the sustainable development of the basin, an index evaluation system covering three dimensions of new quality laborers, new quality labor objects, and new quality labor materials was constructed. The entropy weight-TOPSIS method was used to assess the new quality productive forces development level of 34 resource-based cities in the Yellow River Basin from 2012 to 2023. The spatial-temporal evolution pattern of the new quality productive forces level was measured using kernel density estimation and the grey prediction GM(1,1) model. The obstacle degree model was used to analyze the influencing factors of the new quality productivity level. The results show that: a) Among the resource-based cities in the Yellow River Basin, the number of cities in the rapid growth type is the largest, and the average level of new quality productivity shows an inverted V-shaped growth trend. b) The development of new quality productive forces in these cities tends to converge, and the forecasted average index from 2024 to 2028 demonstrates a stable upward trajectory. c) The top five obstacle factors affecting the development of new quality productivity are the growth rate of broadband access users, the density of road lines, the proportion of fiscal science and technology expenditure, the ratio of R&D personnel to employed personnel, and the intensity of waste gas emissions.