人民黄河

对水土保持-生态环境-经济社会复合系统耦合协调演变状况进行分析并识别其驱动因子,可为推进山西省黄河流域生态保护和高质量发展、制定水土保持高质量发展策略等提供科学依据。以山西省11个地级市为研究对象、以2011—2023年为研究期,构建水土保持-生态环境-经济社会复合系统耦合协调评价指标体系,运用熵权法、耦合协调度模型测算山西省各地级市水土保持-生态环境-经济社会复合系统耦合协调度,通过核密度估计和灰色关联分析探讨了山西省水土保持-生态环境-经济社会复合系统耦合协调发展的时空格局及其驱动因子。主要研究结论如下:1)山西省水土保持、生态环境、经济社会3个子系统呈现生态环境保护水平>经济社会发展水平>水土保持发展水平的层级分化特征;2)山西省各地级市水土保持-生态环境-经济社会复合系统耦合协调水平在研究期均呈稳步上升态势、在空间上呈现西高东低的格局,各地级市间差异较大、研究期末仍普遍较低;3)研究期水土保持-生态环境-经济社会复合系统耦合协调发展受经济社会子系统的主导,其主要驱动因子有基本农田治理面积、封山育林面积、建成区绿化覆盖率、城镇居民人均可支配收入、第三产业产值占GDP比重、粮食总产量。

Analyzing the evolution of coupling coordination of the soil and water conservation-ecological environment-economic society composite system and identifying its driving factors can provide a scientific basis for promoting ecological protection and high-quality development in the Yellow River Basin of Shanxi Province and formulating high-quality development strategies for soil and water conservation. Taking 11 prefecture-level cities in Shanxi Province as research objects and 2011-2023 as the study period, we constructed an evaluation index system for the coupling coordination of the soil and water conservation-ecological environment-economic society composite system. The entropy weight method and coupling coordination degree model were applied to calculate the coupling coordination degree of the composite system in each prefecture-level city of Shanxi Province, and kernel density estimation and grey relational analysis were employed to explore the spatiotemporal pattern and driving factors of the coupling coordinated development of the composite system in Shanxi Province. The main conclusions are as follows: a) The three subsystems of soil and water conservation, ecological environment, and economic society in Shanxi Province showed a hierarchical differentiation characteristic, with the ranking of ecological environment protection level > economic and social development level > soil and water conservation development level. b) The coupling coordination level of the soil and water conservation-ecological environment-economic society composite system in all prefecture-level cities of Shanxi Province showed a steady upward trend during the study period, and presented a spatial pattern of high in the west and low in the east. There were large differences among prefecture-level cities, and the levels were still generally low at the end of the study period. c)During the study period, the coupling coordinated development of the soil and water conservation-ecological environment-economic society composite system was dominated by the economic society subsystem, and the main driving factors included basic farmland improvement area, closed mountain afforestation area, green coverage rate of built-up areas, per capita disposable income of urban residents, proportion of tertiary industry output to GDP, and total grain output.