人民黄河

科学测算市域碳排放量并明确其影响因素是制定区域减污降碳策略的基础，为了丰富市域尺度碳排放研究并为西北地区经济社会绿色低碳发展提供参考，以西北地区陕西、甘肃、宁夏、青海四省(区)37个地级市(州)为样本单元，基于夜间灯光数据估算2012—2022年各地级市(州)碳排放量并分析其时空格局，构建空间计量模型并依据四省(区)面板数据进行碳排放量影响因素分析，结果表明：1)西北地区碳排放量在研究期整体上呈增大趋势，其中陕西碳排放量基数和增幅均最大、青海碳排放量基数较小且呈减小趋势；2)西北地区各省(区)间、各地级市(州)间碳排放量差异非常大，研究期四省(区)碳排放总量大小排序为陕西>宁夏>甘肃>青海，碳排放量在空间上保持东部大、西部小的格局；3)西北地区各地级市(州)碳排放量存在显著的空间正相关性，主要呈高-高、低-低类聚集；4)技术进步、产业结构升级对西北地区碳排放有抑制作用，但二者的抑制作用不显著；5)城市化、化石能源消费、经济发展是西北地区碳排放量增长的主要因素。建议：加强降碳技术攻关，推动“实质性”产业结构升级，优化能源结构，优化城市化发展模式等。

Scientifically estimating urban carbon emissions and identifying their influencing factors is fundamental to formulating regional pollution reduction and carbon reduction strategies. To enrich research on urban-scale carbon emissions and provide a reference for the green and low-carbon development of the economy and society in Northwest China, this study used 37 prefecture-level cities(prefectures) in four provinces(regions)(Shaanxi, Gansu, Ningxia, and Qinghai) of Northwest China as sample units. Based on nighttime light data, the carbon emissions of each prefecture-level city from 2012 to 2022 were estimated, and their spatiotemporal patterns were analyzed. A spatial econometric model was constructed, and the influencing factors of carbon emissions were analyzed based on panel data from the four provinces(regions). The results show that: a) Carbon emissions in Northwest China generally showed an increasing trend during the study period, with Shaanxi showing the largest base and the largest increase in carbon emissions, while carbon emissions in Qinghai were relatively low and showing a decreasing trend. b) Carbon emissions varied greatly among provinces(regions) and prefecture-level cities(prefectures) in Northwest China. During the study period, the total carbon emissions of the four provinces(regions) were ranked as follows: Shaanxi > Ningxia > Gansu > Qinghai, maintaining a spatial pattern of higher emissions in the east and lower emissions in the west. c) Carbon emissions in prefecture-level cities(prefectures) in Northwest China showed a significant positive spatial correlation, mainly exhibiting high-high and low-low clustering. d) Technological progress and industrial upgrading had a suppressive effect on carbon emissions in Northwest China, but the suppressive effect was not significant. e) Urbanization, fossil energy consumption, and economic development were the main factors contributing to the growth of carbon emissions in Northwest China. This study recommends strengthening research on carbon reduction technologies, promoting “substantial” industrial structure upgrading, optimizing energy structure, and optimizing urbanization development models.