人民黄河

长治久安是人民治理黄河80年实践经验不断总结、凝练、升华形成的黄河治理总愿景目标，也是新时代黄河流域生态保护和高质量发展重大国家战略和幸福黄河建设的重要理论命题。随着气候变化和人类活动影响的不断增强，黄河治理的关注对象已由单一河道或工程体系转变为河道行洪输沙子系统与流域生态环境子系统、社会经济子系统高度耦合的复杂流域系统，传统治水理论难以全面释义长治久安的科学内涵，难以定量解析长治久安的实践价值。从黄河治理理念的形成过程出发，基于流域系统科学理论与方法，阐释了黄河长治久安由防洪保安为主要目标向通过流域系统治理实现幸福黄河建设目标的演进过程和递进逻辑，提出了“黄河长治久安的科学内涵就是黄河流域系统可持续运行”理论释义，给出了流域系统在全球气候变化和人类活动持续扰动条件下安全、稳定、协调发展与韧性提升的适应性状态表达方法，对1960—2022年黄河流域系统可持续运行状况及发展路径进行了测度复盘，并基于不同情境预测了黄河下游河流系统可持续运行状况的演化趋势。测度复盘结果表明，黄河流域系统经历了由低水平非均衡运行向高水平协同运行的转变，黄河水量统一调度、小浪底水库投入运行、调水调沙制度化实施、黄河流域生态保护和高质量发展上升为重大国家战略等，使黄河流域系统可持续运行水平显著提升；预测结果表明，节水效率、碳排放情景、水沙组合是影响黄河下游河流系统可持续运行的关键因素，其中高节水效率及丰水少沙、丰水中沙情景有利于维持河流系统可持续运行，而低节水效率、高碳排放以及中水多沙、枯水多沙情景将加剧各子系统竞争，不利于河流系统可持续运行，须协同推进节水效率提升、生态用水保障、水沙调控和产业结构优化。

Long-term stability and enduring security is the overarching vision and goal of the Yellow River governance,formed through the continuous review,refinement,and elevation of 80 years of practical experience in managing the Yellow River.It is also an important theoretical proposition underlying the major national strategy for ecological protection and high-quality development of the Yellow River Basin and the building of a happy Yellow River in the new era.With the intensifying impacts of climate change and human activities,the focus of the Yellow River governance has shifted from individual river channels or engineering systems to a composite basin system characterized by strong coupling among the river-channel flood conveyance and sediment transport subsystem and the basin-wide ecological-environmental and socioeconomic subsystems.Traditional water governance theories are inadequate to fully elucidate the scientific connotation of long-term stability and enduring security or to quantitatively assess its practical value.Starting from the evolution of the Yellow River governance philosophy and drawing on the theories and methods of basin system science,this study elucidates the evolutionary process and progressive logic of long-term stability and enduring security,from a primary focus on flood control and safety assurance toward the goal of building a happy Yellow River through basin system governance.It proposes the theoretical interpretation that “the scientific connotation of long-term stability and enduring security of the Yellow River is the sustainable operation of the Yellow River Basin system”,and develops an adaptive-state representation method to characterize the safety,stability,coordinated development,and resilience enhancement of the basin system under persistent disturbances from global climate change and human activities.The sustainable operation status and development trajectory of the Yellow River Basin system from 1960 to 2022 are retrospectively assessed,and the future evolution of the sustainable operation of the Lower Yellow River system is projected under different scenarios.The retrospective assessment shows that the Yellow River Basin system has transitioned from low-level uncoordinated operation to high-level coordinated operation.The implementation of unified Yellow River water allocation and regulation,the commissioning of the Xiaolangdi Reservoir,the institutionalization of water-sediment regulation,and the elevation of ecological protection and high-quality development of the Yellow River Basin to a major national strategy have significantly improved the sustainable operation of the basin system.Scenario projections indicate that water-saving efficiency,carbon-emission scenarios,and water-sediment combinations are key factors affecting the sustainable operation of the Lower Yellow River system.High water-saving efficiency and high-flow with low-sediment or high-flow with medium-sediment conditions are conducive to maintaining sustainable operation,whereas low water-saving efficiency,high carbon emissions,and medium-flow with high-sediment or low-flow with high-sediment conditions intensify competition among subsystems and undermine sustainable operation.Accordingly,improvements in water-saving efficiency,ecological water-use safeguard,water-sediment regulation,and industrial restructuring should be coordinated to support the sustainable operation.