人民黄河

针对“双碳”目标下流域水风光一体化装机容量优化配置问题，综合考虑发电、生态效益与极端气候风险，研究水风光一体化基地装机容量多目标协同优化配置，具有重要的意义和应用价值。以黄河上游茨哈峡水风光一体化基地为研究对象，阐明了水风光资源演变规律及极端气候下的低出力特征，构建了兼顾发电效益、生态效益与极端气候风险的水风光储容量优化配置模型，并采用多准则决策分析法筛选最优装机配置方案。结果表明：1)2035—2065年风电、光伏年平均出力均呈波动下降趋势。2)4种SSP情景下，极端气候诱发的低出力事件年均频次在43.68～46.29次之间。3)在水电装机4 200 MW条件下，推荐最优装机方案为风电1 000 MW、光伏5 000 MW、储能1 000～2 000 MW·h。与基准方案相比，最优方案的平均弃电率和失负荷率分别降低5.54%和6.65%,极端气候导致的缺电量降低60.4%,万元投资碳减排量增加53.01 t,可实现一体化基地的运行经济性、气候适应性和减排能力的协同提升。

Addressing the optimal installed capacity configuration of basin-scale hydro-wind-photovoltaic hybrid power generation base under China's “dual carbon” goals, it is of great significance and practical value to conduct multi-objective coordinated optimization of installed capacity by comprehensively considering power generation benefits, ecological benefits, and extreme climate risks. Taking the Cihaxia hydro-wind-photovoltaic hybrid power generation base in the Upper Yellow River as the study area, this study clarifies the evolution characteristics of hydro, wind, and photovoltaic resources and the low-output characteristics under extreme climate conditions, constructs a hydro-wind-photovoltaic-storage capacity optimization model considering power generation benefits, ecological benefits, and extreme climate risks, and selects the optimal installed capacity scheme using a multi-criteria decision analysis method. The results show that: a) During 2035-2065, the annual average outputs of wind power and photovoltaic power both exhibit fluctuating downward trends. b) Under the four SSP scenarios, the annual average frequency of low-output events induced by extreme climate conditions ranges from 43.68 to 46.29 events. c) Under the condition of 4 200 MW hydropower capacity, the recommended optimal installed capacity schemes consists of 1 000 MW wind power, 5 000 MW photovoltaic capacity, and 1 000-2 000 MW·h energy storage. Compared with the benchmark scheme, the optimal schemes reduce the average curtailment rate and loss-of-load rate by 5.54% and 6.65%, respectively, decrease the power shortage caused by extreme climate conditions by 60.4%, and increase the carbon emission reduction per 10 000 yuan of investment by 53.01 t, thereby achieving coordinated improvements in operational economy, climate adaptability, and emission reduction capability of the hybrid power generation base.