人民黄河

为了探究宁夏水资源高效利用与多系统协同发展，以“四水四定”为理论框架，对不同情景下宁夏“水-生-能-粮”系统的耦合协调情况进行研究。选取“四水四定”变量，构建宁夏“水-生-能-粮”系统动力学模型，通过设定社会经济发展、用水效率提高、综合发展3种情景，预测宁夏“水-生-能-粮”系统变化情况并计算系统耦合协调度。结果表明：1)宁夏“水-生-能-粮”系统动力学模型具有较高可信度，通过调整不同参数，可预测2023—2030年宁夏水资源、生态、能源、粮食4个子系统之间的联系及变化情况。2)在社会经济发展情景下，宁夏处于经济上升和城镇化发展期，总人口、地区生产总值、城市建成区绿地面积、发电量等预测结果均呈现上升趋势；在用水效率提高情景下，总人口、地区生产总值等指标增速放缓，用水总量显著下降，非常规水利用量不断提升，耕地灌溉面积上涨较缓，农业用水量占比下降明显；在综合发展情景下，经济发展势头低于社会经济发展情景、高于用水效率提高情景，而用水状况优于社会经济发展情景、劣于用水效率提高情景，基本满足宁夏可持续发展要求。3)宁夏“水-生-能-粮”系统耦合协调状况总体良好，3种发展情景下的“水-生-能-粮”系统发展遵循“逐渐耦合—渐进协调”的演化路径，用水效率提高情景下“水-生-能-粮”系统耦合协调情况最优。

To explore the efficient utilization of water resources and the coordinated development of multi-systems in Ningxia, this study took “Basing Four Aspects on Water Resources” as the theoretical framework to examine the coupling coordination status of the Ningxia “Water-Ecology-Energy-Food”(WEEF) system under different scenarios. Parameters related to “Basing Four Aspects on Water Resources” were selected to construct a system dynamics model of the WEEF system in Ningxia. Three scenarios, namely socioeconomic development, water use efficiency improvement and comprehensive development, were designed to predict the changes in the WEEF system and calculate the system coupling coordination degree. The results indicate that: a) The established system dynamics model of the Ningxia WEEF system exhibits high reliability. By adjusting different parameters, it can effectively predict the connections and dynamic changes among the four subsystems(water resources, ecology, energy and food) in Ningxia from 2023 to 2030. b) Under the socioeconomic development scenario, Ningxia is in a stage of economic growth and urbanization, with the projected total population, regional Gross Domestic Product(GDP), green space area of urban built-up areas and electricity generation all showing an upward trend. Under the water use efficiency improvement scenario, the growth rate of indicators such as total population and regional GDP slows down; The total water consumption decreases significantly, the utilization of unconventional water continues to increase, the growth of irrigated cultivated land area is moderate, and the proportion of agricultural water consumption drops remarkably. Under the comprehensive development scenario, the economic development momentum is lower than that in the socioeconomic development scenario but higher than that in the water use efficiency improvement scenario, while the water use condition is better than the socioeconomic development scenario but worse than the water use efficiency improvement scenario, which basically meets the requirements of sustainable development in Ningxia. c) The overall coupling coordination status in Ningxia is good. The development of the WEEF system under the three development scenarios follows the evolutionary path of “gradual coupling-progressive coordination”, and the water use efficiency improvement scenario achieves the optimal coupling coordination of the WEEF system.