人民黄河

为探究黄河流域数字经济发展对碳排放的影响效应及作用机制，基于2011—2020年黄河流域76个地级市的面板数据，测度黄河流域数字经济发展水平、碳排放总量和碳排放强度，构建个体与时间双向固定效应模型进行实证分析，并对实证结果进行了数字经济发展滞后效应、改变样本容量、替换变量等稳健性检验，对技术进步、产业结构升级进行了作用机制检验，对数字经济发展碳减排效应的区位异质性和资源禀赋异质性进行了检验。结果表明：1)数字经济发展对黄河流域碳排放强度和碳排放总量具有显著的抑制作用；2)技术进步、产业结构升级是数字经济发展促进黄河流域碳减排的重要作用机制；3)数字经济发展对黄河流域碳排放的抑制效果存在显著的区位异质性和资源禀赋异质性，对黄河中上游地区碳排放总量的抑制效果明显好于下游地区、对上游地区碳排放强度的抑制作用尚未显现，对非资源型城市碳排放的抑制作用明显大于资源型城市。提出了统筹推进黄河流域数字经济协调发展、加强绿色低碳技术创新、加快推进产业结构转型升级、实施差异化数字经济发展策略、有效抑制碳排放等对策建议。

In order to investigate the effect and mechanism of digital economic development on carbon emission in the Yellow River Basin, based on the panel data of 76 prefecture-level cities in the Yellow River Basin from 2011 to 2020, we measured the level of digital economic development, the total amount of carbon emission and the intensity of carbon emission in the Yellow River Basin, and built an individual and time two-way fixed-effects model to conduct empirical analysis, and conducted robustness tests on the results of the lagging effect of digital economic development, changing the sample capacity, and substitution variables. The empirical results are tested for robustness such as lagged effect of digital economic development, changing sample capacity, and substitution of variables, the mechanism of technological progress and industrial structure upgrading, and the heterogeneity of location and heterogeneity of resource endowment of carbon emission reduction effect of digital economic development. The results show that a) the digital economic development has a significant inhibitory effect on carbon emission intensity and total carbon emission in the Yellow River Basin. b) Technological progress and industrial structure upgrading are important mechanisms for digital economic development to promote carbon emission reduction in the Yellow River Basin. c) There is significant location heterogeneity and resources endowment heterogeneity in the inhibitory effect of digital economic development on carbon emission in the Yellow River Basin, and the inhibitory effect on carbon emission in the middle and upstream areas of the Yellow River is significantly better than that in the downstream areas, and the inhibitory effect on carbon emission in the middle and downstream areas is significantly worse. The inhibition effect on the total carbon emissions in the middle and upper reaches of the Yellow River is significantly better than that in the lower reaches, the inhibition effect on the carbon emission intensity in the upper reaches has not yet appeared, and the inhibition effect on the carbon emissions of non-resources cities is significantly greater than that of resources cities. Countermeasures and suggestions are put forward to coordinate the coordinated development of the digital economy in the Yellow River Basin, strengthen the promotion of green and low-carbon technological innovation, accelerate the transformation and upgrading of the industrial structure, implement differentiated digital economy development strategies, and effectively curb carbon emissions.